Understanding Blackjack Odds
Blackjack is a fun casino table game, but to elevate it from a mere pastime to maximized real money winnings you’d need to learn about blackjack odds. That’s what we’re here for!
Dive deep into this article to gain some expert insights on blackjack odds, probability, and house edge and how you can apply this knowledge to your gaming sessions.
Basic Odds in Blackjack
Odds in blackjack measure the likelihood of a particular outcome occurring during a game. It then brings forth the question, what are your odds of winning blackjack? The basic odds for winning at online blackjack may fluctuate depending on several factors, some of which include:
- The player’s odds
- The dealer’s odds
Player Odds Table
Increasing your blackjack odds with perfect strategy is the best way to have winning gameplay. As a blackjack player, an online casino can lower your odds in several ways, reducing your chances. They can do so by lowering your payout, imposing rules to cancel doubling after splitting, and adding additional decks.
Understanding how the odds of blackjack work through probability can maximize your payouts and give you an advantage over the house. In this blackjack odds chart below, we’ll be showing you the probability of hitting bust as a player during a blackjack game:
| Hand Value | Probability of Hitting Bust |
|---|---|
| Values of 11 and lower | 0% |
| 12 | 31% |
| 13 | 39% |
| 14 | 56% |
| 15 | 58% |
| 16 | 62% |
| 17 | 69% |
| 18 | 77% |
| 19 | 85% |
| 20 | 92% |
| 21 | 100% |
The Dealer’s Odds Table
The winning odds for a blackjack dealer are significantly higher than that of a player because of the house edge applied to the game. However, even the dealer’s odds can change depending on the house rules.
In cases where a dealer has to stand on soft 17 during a game, their chances of winning are reduced immensely. However, if they must hit on soft 17, the dealer may likely win that game round.
In this blackjack odds table below, here is a detailed breakdown of a dealer’s probability of going bust during a game round:
| Dealer’s Face Up Card | Probability — Stand on 17 |
|---|---|
| Ace | 17% |
| 2 | 35% |
| 3 | 37% |
| 4 | 40% |
| 5 | 42% |
| 6 | 42% |
| 7 | 26% |
| 8 | 24% |
| 9 | 23% |
| 10 | 23% |
House Edge in Blackjack
The blackjack house edge is a percentage advantage the online casino has over the player. To understand it better, it’s the percentage of each bet that the online casino keeps aside as profit. All blackjack casinos apply a house edge to their games, increasing the dealer’s odds of winning blackjack.
The casino house edge can be obtained using a blackjack odds calculator to determine the expected value from the amount you wagered in the game. A blackjack’s house edge is usually 0.5%, but it may sometimes change depending on certain factors like specific game rules, game variation, and your strategy. If you make the right decisions, the house edge in blackjack may range between 0.5% and 1%, but playing without experience may increase it to 2% and 4%.
So, as a player, even if you master the game or follow all blackjack game instructions to increase your odds of winning, there will always be a house edge, irrespective of the variation you play.
Probability of Different Outcomes
Understanding probability and its influence on blackjack odds can positively impact your gameplay and maximize your payouts. Let’s take a look at some possible outcomes of blackjack and their probability of occurrence:
Probability of Obtaining a Blackjack
Landing a blackjack from your initial deal has more to do with luck and less with the right strategy. So, if the dealer gives you a 10-value card with an ace, you have a blackjack. A 52-card deck has 4 Aces, 10s, and 16 face cards.
By calculating the odds, you’ll find that the likelihood of receiving a blackjack on your first card deal is 4.83%.
Probability That the Player Wins
The outcome that leads to a player winning a game round is having cards with a higher value than the dealer’s but not exceeding the value of 21. However, a player’s average chance of winning the game is 42.22%.
Probability That the Dealer Wins
In a game like blackjack, the dealer makes the decision last, which gives them time to make better decisions about the game. So, the dealer’s winning odds are usually 49.1% of the time.
So, Will You Beat the Odds in Blackjack?
The simplicity of blackjack makes it a great game to play. Still, one of the best ways to enjoy the game is by understanding its fundamental techniques and making the right decisions. Doing this significantly affects the game’s outcome. Thankfully, this article helps you know the standard rules of blackjack odds and probability and points you in the right direction as you start your gameplay.
Now that you have gained insight into blackjack odds, probability, and house edge, would you like to put your newfound knowledge to the test? Head over to our page for some of the best blackjack casinos recommendations.